The pick of Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court will be analyzed to death over the next several days. Her legal opinions will be picked over at great length by the qualified and unqualified, in ways useful and cringeworthy. Her public utterances will be parsed with the concentration worthy of Biblical scholars and then will be transformed into whatever spin the examiner wants.
There’s no need to add preemptively to that hashing, but I wanted to make one point in the discussion. Sotomayor’s pick is–on a political level–an act of genius and will position the Democrats to do well in 2010 and Obama to win reelection in 2012. Why? That the Judge is Hispanic places her nomination and confirmation in one of the great shifting fault lines in current American politics. Karl Rove made a concerted effort to woo the Hispanic vote in 2004 and was met with relative success. Where Al Gore had won 65% of the Hispanic vote in 2000, John Kerry won only 55%. The Hispanic vote in Florida, which voted 56% for Bush, helped him carry that state. That was largely undone in 2005-2006 when the GOP collectively went Minuteman Project on the subject of illegal immigration. That pushed large numbers of Hispanics back into the Democratic camp in 2006 and 2008. Obama won the Hispanic vote by 67-31% over McCain, a surprising total given McCain’s friendliness to immigration reform and his roots in the southwest.
Sotomayor’s pick should help solidify that shift, for two distinct reasons. First is the pick itself, which should raise Obama’s standing among Hispanics even further. But the second is the likely Republican reaction. The GOP is going to go after Sotomayor hard during the confirmation. They can’t not. It’s in their DNA, it’s too attractive a way further to rile up the base, and Supreme Court picks have simply become highly-partisan and politicized moments. And they’re going to do it in all the ham-fisted and seemingly racist ways at which the modern GOP excels. This is a red meat moment for the insane wing of the Republican Party and they are certainly not going to avoid chowing down. The fight will consume most of the summer, and its legacy will last at least to election 2010 and likely to November 2012. Sotomayor’s legacy, if she is confirmed, is thus likely to be both judicial and political.
14 comments
May 26, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Ahistoricality
McCain’s attractiveness on immigration issues was pretty well wiped out by his aggressive backpedalling and rightward pandering on immigration issues.
I am, at this point, deeply suspicious of analyses which place an election on the fulcrum of a single constituency. But there’s no question that the Hispanic community’s interest seem, on the whole, to align better with Democratic platforms.
May 26, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Linkmeister
Another part of the Republican reaction, at least among the interest groups: replenishment of their coffers.
May 26, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Witt
It is not clear to me the extent to which she is currently seen as “our nominee” by non-Puerto Rican Hispanics/Latinos. In some respects, the political issues of Puerto Ricans are overwhelmingly different from other Latinos — starting with the fact that they are all US citizens by birth and have none of the myriad concerns about immigration status that drive related issues of access to education, healthcare, jobs, etc. for many other Americans of Latino descent (esp. first generation).
By contrast, of course, there is far greater overlap on social issues. So if Senate Republicans attack her on human/social grounds, I suspect it will more personal to a whole lot more Americans — of whatever ethnicity, but certainly including non-Puerto-Rican Latinos.
May 26, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Witt
Whoops, should be “I suspect it will feel more personal….”
May 27, 2009 at 7:18 am
Dr J
Bonus for the Dems: the right-wing smears (e.g., this from Sen. Imhofe: “”In the months ahead, it will be important for those of us in the U.S. Senate to weigh [Sotomayor’s] qualifications and character as well as her ability to rule fairly without undue influence from her own personal race, gender, or political preferences.”) will rightly piss off millions of women.
May 27, 2009 at 7:34 am
silbey
deeply suspicious of analyses which place an election on the fulcrum of a single constituency
Yeah, I think that it’s only one factor of many, but given the competitiveness of the southwest, it’s an important one.
May 27, 2009 at 7:47 am
dance
It is not clear to me the extent to which she is currently seen as “our nominee” by non-Puerto Rican Hispanics/Latinos.
Agreed….what’s the feeling in California, where Puerto Ricans are practically unheard of?
May 27, 2009 at 7:53 am
Michael Turner
Hey, dance, they made us watch West Side Story in class, when I was in junior high school in California. We have totally heard of Puerto Ricans, and we’re ready to rumble with them. Or rhumba, as the case may be.
May 27, 2009 at 9:06 am
silbey
And the ham-fistedness starts.
May 27, 2009 at 10:59 am
silbey
More
May 27, 2009 at 11:01 am
dance
Huh. I grew up in Sacramento. West Side Story wasn’t in the curriculum I had. PR was WAY off the radar—e.g. we just assumed Lisa Lisa and the Cult Jam were black.
May 27, 2009 at 1:03 pm
silbey
I’m never sure if having Joe Klein agree with me is a good thing or not.
He does come up with “confirmogasm.”
May 27, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Paula
@ Witt:
http://promigrant.org/diary/700/sotomayor-nomination-identity-politics-games-people-play
May 27, 2009 at 9:48 pm
Michael Turner
I would have gone with “confirmoplexy”. NRO’s Mark Krikorian says that pronouncing it “SotomayOR” (as she happens to prefer) sticks in his craw. Poor guy. I say we let him go. Tape a “do not resuscitate” note to his back instead of administering the Heimlich Maneuver. It would be the merciful thing to do, since he’s clearly too delicate for this rough new world and its steady diet of things un-American.