On this day in 1945, Harry Truman said, “The world will note that the first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, a military base.” Or anyway, that’s the recording I’ve previously heard; it differs a little from his officially prepared statement: “Sixteen hours ago, an American airplane dropped one bomb on Hiroshima, an important Japanese Army base.”
Let’s begin with the wording. You wouldn’t normally say, “Hiroshima, a military base” any more than you would say, “Oakland, a military base” or “Seattle, a military base,” or “Houston, a military base”—well, you get the idea. You would normally say, “Hiroshima, a city.”
Indeed it would make greater sense to say “Hiroshima, a military target”—for the Second World War was an industrial war, and civilians did work essential to the war effort throughout the factory towns of the combatant nations. Thus one could make the argument that any considerable city was a legitimate military target.
And throughout the war cities had been targeted. From the time of the aerial bombardments in the First World War, people throughout the world had known that cities would be bombed in the next war and that civilians would be killed, as indeed they were through various small wars in the 1920s. The vision of Atlanta aflame in Gone with the Wind is as much anxious portent of the coming urban infernos as it is a reflection on the Civil War. From the first in the burgeoning big war—from Guernica, Warsaw, the blitz of London; from Coventry through the V-2 assaults (engineered by that great American Wernher von Braun); including Hamburg, Dresden, and Tokyo among others—cities came under fire.
But despite this precedent Truman did not say “Hiroshima, a city” nor even “Hiroshima, a military target.” One might therefore conclude that Truman did not want to speak of Hiroshima as a city, even a city that might legitimately be targeted under the circumstances of a war that had seen plenty of cities targeted.
What was the nature of his unwillingness to make this case? I think it derives in part from a key phrase in the prepared statement: “one bomb.” The atomic bomb was not a precision weapon. Even if you sent waves of B-24’s, B-17’s, or B-29’s to hit a city you could still claim (though, it’s true, with decreasing plausibility as the war went on) that you were not targeting the city, but that you were targeting military sites within the city, and that any civilians killed, whether by stray bombs or by the cumulative firestorms sometimes raised by the incendiary weaponry, were unfortunate if inevitable casualties. (Not everyone made such claims, of course.)
“One bomb” meant that you couldn’t pretend to yourself or anyone else that you weren’t going to kill civilians, that you weren’t targeting a city—by definition the center of a civilization. This feature of atomic weaponry is one—perhaps the most important—of the particularly horrifying features of nuclear bombardment. During the revived enthusiasm for nuclear weaponry in the early 1980s, I asked my mother what would happen if the Russians bombed us with nuclear weapons. “Oh, honey, we’d be dead right away. We’re only thirty miles from MacDill, and that’d be a first-strike target.”
None of which is to say that Truman, or the U.S., necessarily shouldn’t or under any conceivable circumstances wouldn’t have used the weapon, but it does cast some light on a paradox of reaction to the bombing. By generally accepted account, many fewer people were killed in the bombing of Hiroshima than in the bombing of Tokyo, which it would have been equally if not more inaccurate to describe as a military base. Yet there is nothing like a commensurate level of introspection over the bombing of Tokyo. The bombing of Tokyo took many bombs and bombers; Hiroshima only one.
It is useful to remember the bombing of Tokyo when thinking about the atomic bomb. Often, people point out that the bombing saved the U.S. an invasion of Japan and count the casualties of an invasion against the Hiroshima bombing; the bombing thus saved the lives of U.S. soldiers, sailors, and marines. But it is also worth pointing out that had the delivery of the atomic bomb been delayed, any invasion would surely have been preceded by further incendiary bombings of Japanese cities. On this measure it seems quite likely that the use of the atomic weapon killed fewer civilians and fewer Japanese, as well as fewer Americans, than the likely alternative.
Historians also make the case that the brutal efficiency of one-bomb—one-city destruction created a sense of immediacy that had otherwise been lacking among Japanese leaders, and precipitated a decision to surrender that had previously existed only in diffuse form. On this reckoning the single bomb was perhaps more effective than continued conventional bombings at ending the war.
I see I’ve written 750 words on the bomb and only barely touched on two issues—how it related to earlier bombings in the war, and its effectiveness at ending the war. There are other issues; there is an enormous literature on the subject. I’ll put my old discussion of the motives for dropping the bomb under the fold.
It might be worth mentioning too, though, that I almost never teach “the decision to drop the bomb” at even this length in class. I spend a fair bit of time instead on the conventional air war, out of which it seems to me that the atomic bomb developed logically. Given the history of the war to that date I cannot envision the U.S. not using the bomb, nor—considering Dresden and the reaction of Americans to the revelation of the concentration camps—imagine the U.S. would not have used atomic bombs against Germany had they been ready in time.
From five years ago.
Today is the anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima, which I might
not even have mentioned – didn’t we have a big enough fight on the 50th
anniversary? Do we have to start ginning up a new one two years before the
60th?
Nichoals Kristof cites “an emerging consensus” among historians:
“We Americans have blood on our hands” because of Hiroshima. Borrowing
from the President, he critiques “[r]evisionist historians like Gar
Alperovitz,” who have shaped “this emerging consensus” that “Washington
believed the bombing militarily unnecessary.”
Kristof knows lots of things about lots of things I know nothing
about, and I learn from his work, especially on contemporary Asia and
Africa. But he doesn’t know “American scholarship” all that well. Even if
you’re not an a-bomb expert – I’m not – you can say pretty quickly that
Kristof has the wrong end of the stick.
First of all, woe betide anyone who asserts there’s an “emerging
consensus” on the atomic bombs of 1945; it’s one of those issues that
reliably draws shouty people. And Alperovitz’s work in particular
invariably polarizes the profession; reviews of his Atomic Diplomacy and
The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb include accusations of professional
malfeasance as well as expressions of strong admiration. When historians
get to scuffling over his work, well, the tweed flies.
But second of all, and more importantly, if you went looking for
common ground between historians identified with both the left and the
right, you would find quite the opposite of what Kristof says.
Walter LaFeber of Cornell says,
Militarily, the Americans dropped the first bomb to end the war as
quickly as possible and before perhaps a million casualties resulted from
an invasion of Japan.
America, Russia, and the Cold War, 7th ed. (1993), p. 25
John Lewis Gaddis of Yale says,
Having acquired this awesome weapon, the United States used it against
Japan for a simple and straightforward reason: to achieve victory as quickly,
as decisively, and as economically as possible.
We Now Know (1997), p. 87
And Barton J. Bernstein of Stanford said as early as 1974,
The administration did not decide to use the bomb against Japan in
order to stop Soviet entry into the Pacific war or to gain advantages over
the Soviets in Eastern Europe or in the Pacific. Rather, the Truman
administration acted upon the inherited [i.e., from FDR] assumption that
the bomb was a legitimate weapon for combat use against an enemy…. The
combat use of the bomb promised to speed the end of the war and thereby to
save American lives.
“The Quest for Security,” Journal of American History 60:4, p. 1014
Indeed, Bernstein long ago indicated that what Kristof describes as
the Alperovitz “consensus” is dodgy for a few simple reasons.
1. Truman didn’t per se decide to use the bomb; he simply allowed
the existing bomb program established by FDR to go ahead. (This, by the
way, is why suggestions that Truman’s bigotry influenced the decision
cannot be terribly serious. The bombing had nearly nothing to do with
Truman personally.)
2. Assertions that Truman, or nearly-Secretary-of-State James F.
Byrnes, were thinking principally in terms of scaring the Soviets and not
of defeating the Japanese come from other people’s (usually self-serving)
recollections recorded well after the fact – after they were persuaded
that the a-bomb was something terrible and different.
3. The bomb’s developers didn’t think of it as a deterrent threat
rather than a combat weapon. The notion that it belonged to a special
category only emerged after people could see what instant, awful and
lasting damage it could do.
None of this general belief that the bombs were going to be used
for military purposes touches the question of whether they were used in
the best possible way – could they have been deployed against a more
definitely military target? Could there have been a little longer delay
before the second bomb? How many lives did avoiding an invasion really
save? Wouldn’t an invasion have cost Japanese lives too – more Japanese
lives, maybe, than the bomb? Working up to an invasion would probably have
meant continued conventional bombing and continued blockades, generating
more casualties even before the invasion itself occurred.
Bernstein again, this time in 1998:
In 1945, before Hiroshima and even afterward, Truman rightly
believed that the use of the A-bomb on Japan would be warmly endorsed by
Americans, that they never would have understood, much less approved, a
decision not to use the weapon if it was available, and that no mainline
American politician, who would have been likely to be President at the
time, would have decided otherwise….
He also seemed to believe that the use of the bomb, as Secretary
Byrnes contended, might help him in dealing with the Soviets. But that
hope was never a controlling reason but only a supplementary, and thus a
confirming, reason to do what Roosevelt would probably also have done,
what virtually all top-level presidential advisers seemed to endorse, and
what only one adviser, Under Secretary Bard, who was on the fringes of
decision-making, ever questioned before Hiroshima: dropping the bomb on
Japan in order to speed a surrender.
“Truman and the A-Bomb,” Journal of Military History, 62:3, p. 567
As I say, if there were something like a professional historical
consensus, this would be it. Nobody’s happy about the bomb – Truman wasn’t
either – but you won’t find hordes of historians going around accusing the
Truman administration of using the bombs without military reasons in the
midst of what was, after all, a brutal war in which the bombing of
civilians had already been established as awful, common practice.
Whatever the shortcomings of my profession, Mr. Kristof – and
historians can be maddening – consensus on Alperovitz isn’t one of them.
Please build a straw man out of someone else
66 comments
August 6, 2008 at 9:28 am
silbey
Good post.
August 6, 2008 at 9:43 am
Stunned… « Blurred Productions
[…] This is one of the finest pieces of history blogging I’ve read. […]
August 6, 2008 at 9:46 am
TF Smith
Do atrocities pale over time?
I had a course on Periclean Athens last spring; not to be all presentist or anything, but all sides in the Peloponessian War routinely committed war crimes (under today’s ideals) against women and children.
2500 years from now, will the Holocaust and the rest of the 20th Century’s mass murders still resonate? Or will they have been forgotten – or worse yet, exceeded – by some crime we can not even contemplate today?
And who was the 20th Century’s Thucydides? WSC?
August 6, 2008 at 9:54 am
blueollie
I think that the atomic bomb was a different case from the massive aerial bombardments (even the one against Tokyo which killed 80,000)
Here is why: there was some reason to believe that Japan would have accepted the terms that they ended up accepting PRIOR to the Okinawa invasion.
But some actually feared that Japan would surrender before we could try out the a-bomb.
So, one could make the case that the decision to use the a-bomb actually cost US lives.
August 6, 2008 at 9:55 am
ari
This is one of the finest pieces of history blogging I’ve read.
This is precisely right. This is a great post. *cough* Warmonger *cough*.
August 6, 2008 at 10:01 am
Vance Maverick
I think another part of the special horror of nuclear weapons arises from the comparative logistical simplicity of dropping them — the small number of people taking decisive action. Compare the endless squadrons that bombarded Tokyo. Thus the concern for the mental health of the pilot of the Enola Gay. It’s a bit like the logic of the firing squad (when a single bullet would do).
This can’t explain the euphemism/misdirection/lie of calling Hiroshima a “military base”, but it suggests why Tokyo is less remembered.
August 6, 2008 at 10:04 am
silbey
Here is why: there was some reason to believe that Japan would have accepted the terms that they ended up accepting PRIOR to the Okinawa invasion.
Gar Alperovitz makes that argument (as do others). I don’t find it convincing. There were factions within the Japanese government who had talked about surrendering or negotiating terms during early 1945, but they were not in control and the leadership of the army and navy was not willing to discuss the issue. Remember that it took the Emperor’s intervention to force the Japanese government’s hand, and even then there was an attempt by junior officers to kidnap the Emperor on his way to the radio station to make the surrender announcement.
But some actually feared that Japan would surrender before we could try out the a-bomb.
Some? Could you give some specific names and citations?
August 6, 2008 at 10:14 am
ari
Silbey, do you know anything about the psychology of technological leaps in military hardware? I don’t recall that there was much worry about the advent of ironclads during the Civil War, for example. Well, people worried. But they worried that they might lose if they didn’t have one. Nobody expressed anxiety about the Monitor‘s captain. Still, someone like Schivelbusch would argue that a powerful new technology often (always?) brings with it both awe and fear. Certainly that was true of steamboats. So why not the bomb?
August 6, 2008 at 10:33 am
blueollie
Silbey, I can’t (at this time) provide specifics because I am on the road (no, I am not driving as I type this! :) ) but the sources are contained in this book by Lifton and Mitchel.
Of course I have no history credentials and therefore can’t comment on the merits of their arguments though I can say I found this book to be an entertaining read.
August 6, 2008 at 10:35 am
L
Don’t we need to address the then unknown (and long term) effects of radiation? The radioactive “fallout” impacts the storytelling.
August 6, 2008 at 11:14 am
silbey
Silbey, do you know anything about the psychology of technological leaps in military hardware?
It’s a great question. I’m not aware of a work that has looked at such psychology as its central theme, though Sherry, _The Rise of American Airpower_ does look at that theme.
The two technologies pre-atomic bomb that I can think of that sparked the same kind of terror were strategic bombers and gas. In the 1920s and 30s there were large scale national fears about how the next war would inevitably result in the large-scale destruction of cities and populations through bombing and gassing and that societies would crumble as a result. There’s a strong argument to be made that Neville Chamberlain had that at least partly in mind during his negotiations with Hitler.
So why not the bomb?
I don’t think I argued that the bomb didn’t bring that kind of fear. In fact, I thought Eric’s point about the _ease_ of the destruction being particularly fearsome was nicely made.
Silbey, I can’t (at this time) provide specifics because I am on the road (no, I am not driving as I type this! :) ) but the sources are contained in this book by Lifton and Mitchel.
Of course I have no history credentials and therefore can’t comment on the merits of their arguments though I can say I found this book to be an entertaining read.
I’ve not read it, and I couldn’t find any accessible reviews but this exchange didn’t fill me with confidence.
One of the things to keep in mind when someone suggests that Truman was covering up or dissembling is that 1) Harry Truman was maybe the most direct President in U.S. history. The man said what he meant, even when it got him in trouble, and 2) the atomic bombing of Japan was _popular_ in the United States. People weren’t shocked, they were _happy_. There was no reason for him to cover it up.
August 6, 2008 at 11:16 am
Josh
“Oh, honey, we’d be dead right away. We’re only thirty miles from MacDill, and that’d be a first-strike target.”
Is there anyone who lived in the U.S. in the ’80s who didn’t some version of this? It was certainly taken for granted when I lived in Nebraska (because of our proximity to SAC) and in Denver (I don’t recall what the target was supposed to be there, but there was one).
August 6, 2008 at 11:19 am
ben wolfson
Hey L, are you also “L.”?
August 6, 2008 at 11:40 am
dana
It’s a bit like the logic of the firing squad (when a single bullet would do). This can’t explain the euphemism/misdirection/lie of calling Hiroshima a “military base”
I like to think that it’s the verbal equivalent of turning away from the mirror, or not meeting someone’s eyes. Even if history agrees he made the right decision, there’s no way of pretending away the casualties as collateral damage,
August 6, 2008 at 11:47 am
Western Dave
There was a recent PHR article that had some newly transated Japanese government papers that showed pretty convincingly that even Soviet entry would not have stopped the Japanese war hawks from fighting. The scattered bits of US intelligence communities that believed Soviet entry would cause Japan to surrender were a) wrong and b) about as reliable as Bush’s intelligence on Iraq. Everything they knew was coming from the Japanese ambassador to the USSR who was acting as a free agent and no one in Tokyo was paying attention to him.
August 6, 2008 at 11:58 am
jim
It’s worth pointing out that the people responsible for the decision to drop the bomb (to the extent that there was such a decision) had no direct knowledge of the power of the device. None of them had been at Trinity: not Truman, not Stimson, not Marshall. And none of them had the resources to translate the reports of what happened at Trinity into an imaginative reconstruction: at best, they would have understood that it was a really big bomb. It’s difficult for us, who have seen the iconic photographs of Hiroshima, to work our way back into the pre-Hiroshima mindset. My late father-in-law would occasionally tell the story of how, when the first rumours of the destruction of Hiroshima were beginning to percolate, he had convinced everyone in his office that the rumours had to be wrong: he didn’t know what had actually happened, but what was claimed was obviously impossible.
The psychology here is different from the psychology of previous weapons advances. The effects of those were magnified in the imagination.
August 6, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Jason B
John McCain was a little uncomfortable with his vote supporting the burning of Atlanta, but he was enthusiastically in support of both Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
August 6, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Student
Very good post. Re: Jim’s point: it’s worth noting that Toshi Tasegawa’s book (2005) make a pretty strong case that the Soviet declaration of war had a decisive impact on the decision to surrender by the emperor and his advisers. I think Tasegawa fudges a bit to minimize the impact of the atomic bombings, but his access to hitherto obscure Japanese sources and his command of decisionmaking processes in wartime Japan make this an excellent book nonetheless. As he shows, there were some fanatical Army officers who tried to stage a coup to stop the surrender, but their failure suggests how marginalized the “war hawks” had become.
August 6, 2008 at 12:19 pm
silbey
And none of them had the resources to translate the reports of what happened at Trinity into an imaginative reconstruction: at best, they would have understood that it was a really big bomb.
Maybe. But remember Eric’s point about the fire raids on Tokyo and Dresden. The United States was already capable–and was in fact in the process of–wreaking the kind of damage that occurred at Hiroshima with conventional methods. It took a lot more effort, but it was possible. Describing the bomb to Truman as “Like Tokyo, but with one bomb” is a pretty clear picture.
August 6, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Vance Maverick
Silbey, Truman may have been forthright by presidential standards, but the prepared statement Eric linked simply doesn’t acknowledge that the bomb destroyed habitations as well as war industry.
August 6, 2008 at 12:50 pm
silbey
that the bomb destroyed habitations as well as war industry.
But Truman (and the administration in general) wasn’t dissembling about the A-bomb specifically, which was my point. This was the kind of language that they used about all the bombing they were doing. Treating the bomb as distinct from the other kinds of bombing that the US and Britain were doing is to a substantial degree ex post facto.
August 6, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Vance Maverick
Fair enough. That said, the statement does suggest, at the end and after much else, that atomic weaponry is a new kind of problem, internal and international, for the government.
August 6, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Student
Truman wasn’t dissembling when he announced the bombing, but he was certainly reluctant to acknowledge in a straightforward way what the bomb had done. In private, however, he showed that he knew what had happened and was (I think) remorseful, e.g., the pretty well known statement recorded in Henry Wallace’s diaries, where Truman said (after Nagasaki) that he had stopped the atomic bombings because of “all those kids” that had been killed.
August 6, 2008 at 1:14 pm
eric
I think Western Dave is referring to
Sadao Asada, “The Shock of the Atomic Bomb and Japan’s Decision to Surrender: A Reconsideration,” PHR 64:4, Nov 1998, 477-512.
In it, Asada notes that Prime Minister Suzuki decided to support surrender after Hiroshima and before learning about Soviet entry into the war.
Even after notification that the Soviets had entered war, the war council remained split, with military leaders wishing to continue. Suzuki submitted the deadlock to the emperor, knowing the emperor favored peace. And the emperor had to intervene again to encourage acceptance of the American peace communiqué.
While Asada says it is true, blueollie, that Hirohito had earlier favored peace (a) he wasn’t the decisionmaker until the last and (b) he changed his mind several times from 1943-1945 about whether he thought Japan could win or should sue for peace.
Asada: “In the end it was the Hiroshima bomb that compelled them to face the reality of defeat.” (p. 500)
The Nagasaki question is different yet.
August 6, 2008 at 1:24 pm
jim
Describing the bomb to Truman as “Like Tokyo, but with one bomb” is a pretty clear picture.
Two objections:
1. It’s not clear anyone did actually so describe it to Truman. Groves in the April briefing seems to have described his program, only ending with the hope that the devices would be equivalent to 5,000 maybe 10,000 tons. We don’t know if Truman imagined what that meant. Groves’s report on Trinity talked a lot about the physical effects — the blinding flash of light, the mushroom cloud, the vaporization of the tower — but again whether that got equated to effects on a city is unclear.
2. It’s not clear Truman understood the effects of LeMay’s attacks on Tokyo. He apparently told Stimson that the new bomb was not to be used either on Kyoto or Tokyo (“the old capital or the new. … The target will be a purely military one.”) which suggests he underestimated what had been done to Tokyo.
August 6, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Greg
Re: Jim’s point: it’s worth noting that Toshi Tasegawa’s book (2005)
I think Student is referring to Tsuyoshi Hasegawa’s Racing the Enemy (Harvard Press, 2005), which I have also read and found quite persuasive. Hasegawa is a Japanese-American Soviet scholar, and his work is based on research in archives in Japan, Russia, and the United States.
As I recall, his conclusions were: Truman wished to spare American lives by forcing a quick surrender by the Japanese, while also forestalling the promised Soviet invasion (thereby keeping Stalin out of Asia, it was hoped), as well as putting a little fear into the Soviets that the same fate could befall them; that the Japanese (particularly Asada) were more afraid of the consequence of the Soviet invasion (and the resultant loss of territory) than withstanding further US air assaults (nuclear or otherwise); Stalin, of course, was seeking further territorial gains in Asia.
August 6, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Student
Sorry about mispelling Hasegawa’s name! That’s what I get for writing on the fly. Eric is right to cite Asada’s very good article, which may have been one of the first in the English language literature based on Japanese primary sources. Moreover, as I recall, Asada makes a strong argument that the Japanese were far from a decision to surrender at the time of the invasion. To a great extent, however, Hasegawa’s work supercedes Asada because of his argument that it wasn’t so much the bomb, but the Soviet declaration of war that really shocked Tokyo into surrender. While Hasegawa downgrades the impact of the atomic bombings some of the evidence he provides suggests otherwise.
August 6, 2008 at 2:29 pm
eric
While Hasegawa downgrades the impact of the atomic bombings some of the evidence he provides suggests otherwise.
Which is why I’m not sure it’s right to say Hasegawa supersedes Asada.
August 6, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Frog in a Well - The Japan History Group Blog
[…] still hate this time of year. Though the post and comments are of generally high quality, and the introduction of actual […]
August 6, 2008 at 3:06 pm
andrew
Silbey, do you know anything about the psychology of technological leaps in military hardware?
I’m not Silbey, but I remember reading that Fulton, of steamboat fame, had some grand ideas about the submarine’s ability to transform warfare – I think ultimately he believed it would end up acting as a deterrent. But he never built one successful enough to demonstrate what he was talking about, so never mind.
August 6, 2008 at 3:11 pm
ari
Click on the link at 2:33. It leads to a thoughtful post.
August 6, 2008 at 4:58 pm
silbey
In private, however, he showed that he knew what had happened and was (I think) remorseful, e.g., the pretty well
He also said “this is the grandest thing ever” in the immediate aftermath.
1. It’s not clear anyone did actually so describe it to Truman. Groves in the April briefing seems to have described his program, only ending with the hope that the devices would be equivalent to 5,000 maybe 10,000 tons. We don’t know if Truman imagined what that meant. Groves’s report on Trinity talked a lot about the physical effects — the blinding flash of light, the mushroom cloud, the vaporization of the tower — but again whether that got equated to effects on a city is unclear.
Uh, I think we’re parsing things pretty closely here. He was told the tonnage equivalent, he was told the effects at the blast site, but unless he was specifically told how it would affect the city, Truman would have no idea? I don’t find that plausible.
2. It’s not clear Truman understood the effects of LeMay’s attacks on Tokyo. He apparently told Stimson that the new bomb was not to be used either on Kyoto or Tokyo (”the old capital or the new. … The target will be a purely military one.”) which suggests he underestimated what had been done to Tokyo.
That he didn’t understand the full effects of the fire bombing of Tokyo (I’m not sure anybody did until the air force got on the ground after the surrender) is not the same thing as understanding that they’d killed a lot of people.
The essential question, I think, is whether Truman understood that he was ordering something similar to the fire-bombings–i.e. something that would kill tens of thousands of people. I don’t think there’s substantial doubt that he did understand that, but that he saw that in the context of an extremely violent war and an extremely deadly aerial bombing campaign that was already ongoing.
August 6, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Greg Miller
the consensus position of Japanese historians reached almost a half century ago still largely stands: The combined shock of the atomic bombs and Soviet entry pushed the Japanese cabinet to the point where they could accept the unconditional end of the war, but things happened so fast that there’s really no way to tell whether one or the other would have been sufficient in isolation, nor can we know for sure whether a conditional surrender could have been reached earlier because nobody tried very hard.
I think that is probably ambiguous enough to approach the truth of the matter.
August 6, 2008 at 5:51 pm
politicalfootball
From the link at 2:33 p.m.
That’s a good observation. A lot of the historical debate seems to be driven by a desire frame the question to come up with the “right” answer.
Here’s what I wonder: If the desire to deter Soviet expansionism was an important motivator behind Truman’s decision on dropping the bombs, would it necessarily follow that Truman’s decision was wrong ?
August 6, 2008 at 6:31 pm
jim
Let me have one more go at trying to get my point across.
Given the tonnage, given the effects at the blast site, could Truman (and Stimson and Marshall) have extrapolated to the effects on a city? I don’t think so. We can. We have seen the devastation that had been Hiroshima. We have seen movies of Bikini Atoll. In the ’50s there was a lot of research (not all of it ethical) on the effects of nuclear weapons. Today you can go to websites and visualize the consequences of a one megaton airburst over the center of your city. None of that existed in 1945. It seems clear that Stimson didn’t imagine the consequences of the Hiroshima detonation while preparing for it. He did, later, understand what had happened and that informed his subsequent actions.
Does this matter? I think it does. Prior to Trinity, the scientists at Los Alamos seem to have accepted that the devices they were building would be used. After Trinity several of them came up with proposals to avoid actual use of the bombs on people. None of those proposals went anywhere, of course, but they mark a change. Before Trinity, the bomb was an abstraction to them; that some could bet on whether it would set the atmosphere on fire showed that it was an abstraction. After Trinity, it was terribly real, and its use therefore problematic.
But to the decision makers in Washington, the bomb remained an abstraction. An abstraction which might end the war. They could, therefore, contemplate its use abstractly. Yes, they understood they were ordering the death of tens of thousands, but it was an abstract death toll.
No later politician has ordered the use of nuclear weapons. In part because they are no longer abstractions. We now, even Kennedy in ’63, recognize that nuclear weapons create a uniquely horrific devastation that cannot in any circumstances be justified. But that’s a post-Hiroshima recognition.
August 6, 2008 at 7:54 pm
silbey
Let me have one more go at trying to get my point across.
I understood what your point was, I just didn’t and don’t agree with it.
uniquely horrific devastation
You are treating the bomb as something uniquely different in its effects than anything that had come before. It was not.
Not until thermonuclear weapons arrived in the early 1950s did nuclear capabilities actually geometrically surpass what was possible with conventional munitions.
August 6, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Vance Maverick
geometrically
Are you using this term in a technical sense, or just to mean “a lot”?
August 6, 2008 at 8:47 pm
ben wolfson
It could also be used, here, to indicate a greater radius with respect to some relevent effect or other. That’s geometric.
August 7, 2008 at 7:24 am
silbey
Are you using this term in a technical sense, or just to mean “a lot”?
Just to mean ‘a lot,’ but it’d be interesting to see if there was an actual geometric progression in the early 1950s.
August 7, 2008 at 8:39 am
Iron Lungfish
I will never understand the American need to defend and lionize presidents at any cost, even presidents who have incinerated hundreds of thousands of human beings.
August 7, 2008 at 9:44 am
eric
So, you confuse me a little there, Iron Lungfish. Are you speaking of American habits in general, or do you read this post in particular as defending and lionizing such a president?
August 7, 2008 at 9:54 am
Jason B
Most Amercicans I know–and I know a few–tend to demonize more presidents than they lionize. But maybe that’s just the liberal heathen vegetarian crowd I hang with.
August 7, 2008 at 9:56 am
ari
the liberal heathen vegetarian crowd
Are there bars? With good beer?
August 7, 2008 at 10:04 am
Jason B
Not too bad, but it is Norman, after all. The only animals we roast are conservatives, and they’re vegetables, anyway. Or fruits.
August 7, 2008 at 10:13 am
ari
The only animals we roast are conservatives
Not my memory of the place. But I’m getting old, so dementia is a real possibility.
August 7, 2008 at 10:16 am
Jason B
Well, now that all of us liberals in Oklahoma are required to wear yellow aborted-fetus badges on our clothing it’s easy for us to identify each other and gather in grottoes.
August 7, 2008 at 10:20 am
Vance Maverick
(For this, Ari rescued Iron Lungfish from the spam filter?)
August 7, 2008 at 10:33 am
ari
I think we should let Iron Lungfish explain what s/he means. I say that because, as we’ve noted here before, it is awfully hard for a president, no matter how egregious his sins may be, to destroy his reputation. That said, I don’t think Eric’s post was lauding Truman in any way. Even though Eric loves war. (Or maybe it’s just that he invested the proceeds from his book advance in Raytheon stocks.)
August 7, 2008 at 11:06 am
Jason B
I’ve heard that “Rauchway” is German for “Give me the Cheetos or I’m kicking your ass. My friends.”
August 7, 2008 at 11:18 am
Vance Maverick
It always looks to me like Weihrauch, aka frankincense.
August 7, 2008 at 11:46 am
silbey
I think we should let Iron Lungfish explain what s/he means
S/he may wish to snark and run.
August 7, 2008 at 11:56 am
Prof Burgos
A related example I often use in class on the issue of rendering moral judgment about acts taken during wartime:
Sir Charles Porter, Chief of the Air Staff, was particularly enthused in 1942 about a paper written by Lord Cherwell (Churchill’s science advisor) that described the objective of the R.A.F.’s area bombing of German cities as “dehousing” German labor.
Because the Royal Air Force had neither the aircraft numbers nor the manpower of the U.S. Army Air Force, the British bombed at night, in smaller numbers.
The corollary, of course, was that even with the limits of strategic bombing technology of the time, accuracy would go out the window. The U.S.A.A.F. at least tried to “put the bomb in the pickle barrel” with the Norden bombsight; the British, lacking numbers and technology, didn’t even bother with that pretense. So instead of targeting a ball bearing plant in Schweinfurt, for example, the R.A.F. simply bombed Schweinfurt, assuming that by bombing the area they were bound to hit SOMETHING of value.
But to deal with the notion that this constituted an attack on civilians — even given the nature of the war where everyone was essentially part of the “war effort” — Lord Cherwell crafted a very clever argument: The purpose of the campaign was not to attack Germans, per se, but to attack their houses. To “dehouse” them. This would lower their morale and, more importantly, their effectiveness as war workers.
Now, if it happened to be the case that these German workers were INSIDE their homes in the middle of the night when the Royal Air Force came calling, well no-harm/no-foul. That was merely incidental to the purpose of the mission, which was simply to destroy their houses.
As nifty a rhetorical construction as any neocon could hope to concoct.
August 7, 2008 at 11:59 am
eric
Prof Burgos—my impression is that at least some Brits were much more blunt about what they were doing. Harris, I guess.
And as for the Americans—they weren’t as accurate as advertised, were they.
August 7, 2008 at 12:19 pm
silbey
The U.S.A.A.F. at least tried to “put the bomb in the pickle barrel” with the Norden bombsight; the British, lacking numbers and technology, didn’t even bother with that pretense.
The British did try to hit specific military targets early in the war, but found their casualties were so appalling and the results so bad that they could not keep it up. The Americans certainly had the Norden bombsite, and if we had been bombing pickle barrels, the war would have been over quite quickly. But the reality was that–whatever the USAAF said–the American daylight raids were hardly more accurate than the British nighttime. The United States Strategic Bombing Survey concluded after the war that “the air forces designated as “the target area” a circle having a radius of 1000 feet around the aiming point of attack. While accuracy improved during the war, survey studies show that, in the over-all, only about 20% of the bombs aimed at precision targets fell within this target area.” In other words, only 20% of American bombs came within 1000 feet of the target.
Whether they admitted it or not, both British and U.S. were carrying out sustained bombing campaigns against civilian populations.
August 8, 2008 at 9:26 am
TF Smith
Prof. B –
I agree with your points, but believe you mean Sir Charles Portal, not Porter.
http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19410728,00.html
August 8, 2008 at 10:40 am
Early Modern Notes » Recently noted around the web
[…] One bomb. « The Edge of the American West […]
August 8, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Luke
re: technological leaps, “The two technologies pre-atomic bomb that I can think of that sparked the same kind of terror were strategic bombers and gas.”
Don’t forget the crossbow! I believe a pope got involved with that one.
August 8, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Luke
after further review (thanks wikipedia), the reference to crossbows above may be mistaken. they were apparently used throughout the world for hundreds of years (perhaps over a millenia) before the Second Lateran Council, and the authenticity and interpretation of Pope Innocent II’s crossbow ban has apparently come under question among scholars.
anyway, nice blog
August 8, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Alan
I’ve come to this thread late, so the conversation may have moved on. But I’ve found it an interesting and thoughtful thread. One thing I noticed from the part of the conversation dealing with the effects of the bomb (beginning with silbey around 7:54) is that there is little consideration of the deaths and damage from radioactivity. Most American discussions of the damage to Hiroshima and Nagasaki that I’ve seen only tend to explicitly acknowledge the immediate deaths from blast and burn. By using words such as “vaporize” we almost imagine something clean and humane. But from the stories of the bomb survivors it was anything but clean. The numbers of 40,000 and 70,000 people killed instantly are thrown about quite frequently, but should be taken with big grains of salt. It probably took much longer (days or weeks) to hit those numbers and many of the deaths subsequent to the explosion were caused, at least in part, by radiation sickness. In the aftermath of a city-wide catastrophe like the bombs, the means for accurate gathering of statistics regarding deaths and causes were badly degraded. What is certain is that what distinguished Hiroshima/Nagasaki from Tokyo/Dresden/London is that if you survived the firebombings (or rockets), you did not spend the rest of your life fearing the possible eruption of radiation-induced cancers. Radiation (not pure nationalistic politics) is the reason why a-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki have special medical care procedures to this day. Radiation, not “geometrically” increased explosive capabilities, is what killed the majority of the victims of the bombs (even if we accept the number of instantly killed at Hiroshima as 70,000, the death toll by December 1945 was 140,00 and by 1950 was 200,000).
This is not a criticism of the thread as a whole, but I do think that it is always important to recognize that when we are talking about the atomic bombs, the damage that they did was not limited to the moment of the blast and the duration of the ensuing fires. I agree that people may not have sufficiently understood that at the time (so it is difficult to include radiation into our calculations of the morality of the decision to use the bomb or the politics of the decision to surrender), but we have no excuse for not recognizing it now.
Radiation was new. It extended the destructive capacity of the weapon well beyond the likely cessation of hostilities. Any discussion of the possible decision to use nuclear weapons today (bunker busters, etc.), which this thread is not doing (nor should it have to) must recognize this, or we have learned nothing from Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
August 8, 2008 at 4:44 pm
eric
Alan, (and L, who is not “L.”, ben) I think that’s all well taken—I think you find little about fallout here because the consequences of radiation did not much impinge on the US leaders’ decision how to use the bomb or on the Japanese leaders’ decision how to react to it.
But certainly, what we now know about the consequences of radiation give us a horror of nuclear weapons much more like, say, the 1940s-era opinion of poison gas.
August 8, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Brad
Alan, I think I could care less about long term radiation damage. It is a minor perturbation, in many ways, on a huge horror.
It sounds like that eric teaches this the way Rhodes wrote about this. The atomic bomb was a natural outgrowth of both technology and the policy decisions made by the US government during the war. I think you can draw a further conclusion that the wars of the 19th century, which were often almost genocidal in nature, further set the mindset of the generals who drove the decision making process. The US Army’s history is one of fighting to extinction other groups of people, often people of different races (though plenty of Canadians suffered at the hands of US militias). Incinerating folks is just part and parcel to this long history, the nuclear bomb just made it a modern compact industrial product.
August 8, 2008 at 9:18 pm
silbey
Incinerating folks is just part and parcel to this long history
I’m sure you don’t mean to, but of course this isn’t limited to the United States.
August 8, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Brad
Merely incinerating folks is not unique to the history of the US. I would argue that the way of conducting warfare in the 19th century that the US engaged in was different than what went on in Europe whether Europeans were fighting each other or in European colonial efforts. The US had a history of fighting to the absolute end, wars of almost extermination (see, for example, the Philippines). The conduct against Japan (and Germany to a fair degree) reflected that.
August 9, 2008 at 5:38 am
silbey
would argue that the way of conducting warfare in the 19th century that the US engaged in was different than what went on in Europe whether Europeans were fighting each other or in European colonial efforts.
Europeans conducted genocidal wars against each other throughout their history (cf Thirty Years War, for a start) and many of their colonial wars were genocidal in the extreme (the German war against the Wahehe in the 1890s is just one of a number). In this regard, the United States faithfully emulated its forebears.
wars of almost extermination (see, for example, the Philippines).
Despite Stewart Creighton Miller and Gore Vidal, the war in the Philippines was NOT genocidal nor one of extermination. It had it’s really ugly periods, most notably Samar and the cholera outbreak in early 1902, but it was pretty much your standard nasty insurgency/counterinsurgency. The reason it’s become perceived that way in the last 40 years is because it was rediscovered historically as the U.S. was losing in Vietnam.
August 9, 2008 at 8:44 am
We Are Hiroshima? « zunguzungu
[…] by zunguzungu on August 9, 2008 When I wrote this post, I was thinking about this discussion at EotW over the question of whether dropping the atomic bomb on Hiroshima could be justified. As Jonathan […]
November 9, 2008 at 8:44 pm
braquiplan
although Hiroshima is shaked by first atomic bomb, in fact now japan to be the great country in the world and has influence the other country…