Here’s a different way of looking at it: overlay Obama and Kerry results, see what you get. Obama’s in blue, Kerry’s in red, with linear fit lines to help see trends. Basically, all the lines are near to parallel, with the Obama one higher—except in the South.
(Continuing from here and here. Oh, and see also here.)
9 comments
November 17, 2008 at 2:01 pm
SomeCallMeTim
I’m a bit confused as to what this is evidence of. Does it indicate that there are more black people in the South? How similar would the South look to the Northeast if you capped counties to 50% black?
November 17, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Vance
As Andrew puts it, “in the South, many African Americans live in counties where the whites are very conservative”.
November 17, 2008 at 2:42 pm
urbino
True enough, Vance (and Andrew), but it’s also true that, in the South, many African Americans live in counties where the whites are very racist.
I don’t see how this data gives us any way to disentangle the two.
November 17, 2008 at 2:44 pm
andrew
All this linking to another Andrew makes me wonder if I should put initials in my signature.
November 17, 2008 at 2:48 pm
eric
I don’t see how this data gives us any way to disentangle the two
You’re right, but that’s not the point of interest for me; the point of interest is that southern voting remains unusually and significantly divided along racial lines.
November 17, 2008 at 3:01 pm
urbino
Right, I wasn’t disagreeing with your point. Just with what seems to be Andrew’s spin (though that’s probably too strong a word) on it.
(Disclaimer: I haven’t clicked through to his site.)
I don’t know this to be true, but I suspect Memphis and its suburbs provide one of the most clear-cut examples of the racial divide you speak of. Memphis proper is 61% African American. Its suburbs, especially to the east and northeast, are overwhelmingly white and conservative (the white liberal enclave in the city is Midtown).
I would bet voting in the last election strongly reflects this racial geography.
November 17, 2008 at 3:04 pm
urbino
I sort of lost my point there, which was that I suspect the Memphis MSA is sort of like the classic “hook echo” of a tornado on Doppler radar: bright red right next to bright blue.
November 17, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Vance
I thought Andrew was being deliberately cautious in his phrasing there.
(I happen to know him personally — we consumed many pizzas together when I was a grad student and he was an assistant prof — and I know he’s quite capable of being blunt, and also of restraining himself when appropriate.)
November 17, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Ben Alpers
See also this latest post from Nate Silver that suggests that one of the most important factors determining whether or not Obama did better than Kerry among a southern state’s white voters was whether or not Obama campaigned extensively in that state.