On this day in 1972, the Dow Jones industrial average closed above the 1,000 mark for the first time in its history. International Business Machines led the way, moving up more than 11 points, to 388. One trader remarked: “This thing has an obvious psychological effect. As for the permanence of it — well, I just don’t know.” The New York Times, meanwhile, compared the milestone to “the initial breaking of the four-minute mile,” noting that the stock exchange resembled a carnival:
At 3:29 P.M., red light bars flashed on above and below each of the time clocks surrounding the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange. This was the traditional visual signal to show that one minute of training time remained. At the same moment, a bell began clanging on the speaker’s rostrum — the auditory warning.
Traders, brokers and clerks on the floor — aware that history was in the making — broke into cheers that lasted about 20 seconds. Some paper was tossed in the air and drifted down like confetti.
Said another broker, “There’s a sort of renewed confidence in the whole economic outlook.” Ah, those were the days. The market finished today off more than 337 points, down almost 4%. And shares of IBM now sell for just over 80.
Update: See the comments for an explanation of the impact of splits on IBM’s stock price. And then if you can figure it out, explain it to me. Thanks.


37 comments
November 14, 2008 at 9:29 pm
Sifu Tweety Fish
Well, the census is only a couple years off. I’m sure Big Blue will get its mojo back.
November 14, 2008 at 9:38 pm
ari
Honestly, I was surprised that IBM shares cost as much as they do.
November 14, 2008 at 9:54 pm
bitchphd
Yes, but the dow’s also been over *ten* thousand for years now, so.
November 14, 2008 at 10:00 pm
ari
And? You’re not looking to me for investment advice, are you? Because that would be a very bad idea. I can’t even add.
November 14, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Sifu Tweety Fish
IBM’s recent strategy of devoting itself to high-dollar consulting clients has actually been very successful. Pair that with pawning off their notebook business on the poor, inscrutable chinese, and they’re okay as long as the global business environment continues to provide a robust market for high priced… consul… ting.
Oh well. I’m a mac guy.
November 14, 2008 at 10:04 pm
bitchphd
No, I’m not, and I’m also not saying (as it might seem) that the drop is insignificant. But just in context of the post, it doesn’t quite have the impact you might want it to have.
November 14, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Sifu Tweety Fish
B the dow has actually been back below 10,000 for over a month.
Which was your point? I dunno, I’m deeply confused.
November 14, 2008 at 10:07 pm
bitchphd
It has, and again: I’m not saying that the drop isn’t significant.
November 14, 2008 at 10:14 pm
ari
B, I was writing about a milestone that mattered then, trying for a kind of “gee whiz, can you imagine that?” tone. And then I was struck by how the Times piece was so optimistic about the economy. Not so much today. And I mentioned the 337 point drop today both to underscore our malaise and because that number would have represented 1/3 of the total value of the Dow way back in ye olde economicke historee dayz.
November 14, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Sifu Tweety Fish
For an even more startling milestone, the Dow broke 2000 for the first time during in 1987.
November 14, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Sifu Tweety Fish
That’s not really more startling than what Ari posted, Sifu.
Shut up and look at the link! It’s fascinating!
November 14, 2008 at 10:23 pm
ari
That’s a cool chart. Reading it makes me think I should write a book called “Dow 36,000″.
November 14, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Sifu Tweety Fish
And Glassman’s still at it! What a winner.
November 14, 2008 at 10:26 pm
ari
curv3eball’s rant was good today (or whenever it first went up — and by the way, do blog post’s expire?). In other news, you should post more.
November 14, 2008 at 10:26 pm
ari
And yes, that’s projection. Thank god for co-bloggers!
November 14, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Sifu Tweety Fish
In other news, you should post more.
Yes. That would involve (a) having something to say, (b) actually saying it, and (c) being funny about it.
Am I a modern prometheus, or what?
November 14, 2008 at 10:28 pm
ari
Don’t worry, blogging’s dead. You’re just ahead of the curv3. Or wait, does that make it sound like I’m saying you’re dead? Because I don’t mean that.
November 14, 2008 at 11:28 pm
grackle
I’m a financial idiot but I’ve assumed that the Dow being at 10,000 means that money is worth a tenth of what it was worth in 1972. Recently it’s worth a little more.
November 15, 2008 at 12:09 am
Jon H
The prices for IBM aren’t directly comparable – IBM’s had 4 splits since 1972, so there are many more shares on the market. Even if the company was worth the same, you’d expect a lower stock price if each share is a smaller piece of the company.
It would be more useful to know the total market valuations in 1972, versus now.
November 15, 2008 at 12:12 am
Jon H
Actually, come to think of it Google’s stock chart appears to have split-corrected historical prices. It gives prices in the teens for IBM in 1972.
November 15, 2008 at 12:38 am
ari
Jon, I wondered, after the fact, about splits but didn’t know how to correct for my ignorance or find the relevant information myself. Now, though, I’m not entirely sure what you’re saying: is the post misleading or not? If you let me know that I made a mistake, I’ll be happy to post an update. Thanks.
November 15, 2008 at 3:17 am
Michael Turner
Without adjusting for inflation, none of this discussion is very meaningful. I found an inflation-adjusted graph for U.S. markets recently (damned if I can find it now though.) It was kinda scary, if you own stocks: stocks are still high today, in historical terms. 1987 looked like 1929. The run-up to 2000 and to last year’s peak . . . just batshit insane.
What we call the dot-com bubble was really a general stock bubble. Look at GM’s price in 1999 ($80-$90), look at it today (so low it might get de-listed), and ask: what has fundamentally changed? Not all that much. GM had huge liabilities back then, too, but gasoline was cheap and consumer credit thought reliable. A rising tide of froth lifts all boats . . . before they sink back down in it.
The overall market high set last October was probably just bubble reinflation, thank you Alan Greenspan. (I think it slightly exceeded the previous bubble peak, in inflation-adjusted terms.) I read somewhere recently that if you use long-term market growth trends as a guide, the Dow should be more like 7500.
Still, I’m not without hope. One should very carefully monitor Donald Luskin’s blog. When he finally gives up and says it’s all hopeless . . . BUY! BUY!
November 15, 2008 at 6:11 am
jhm
Split adjusted, IBM shares were in the $19-20 range in Nov. 1972. The splits include: 5:4, 4:1, 2:1, 2:1.
November 15, 2008 at 7:42 am
Walt
One IBM share in 1972 is equal to 20 IBM shares today, so to compare you need to divide the 1972 price by 20, or multiply today’s price by 20. So the value of IBM is up since 1972, not down.
November 15, 2008 at 11:10 am
bitchphd
Ari, I know what you were doing with the post. Sorry I sounded pissy–was just thinking out loud.
November 15, 2008 at 11:30 am
John Emerson
OT: At Trollblog I have collected links to obsolete praise for pre-bankruptcy Iceland’s financial deregulation and economic miracle.
November 15, 2008 at 12:33 pm
ac
I am strangely riveted by Gordon Brown’s psychodrama. His years in Tony’s shadow. Getting handed the post-Iraq dregs of New Labour. The legacy of his adolescent whiz kid social awkwardness affecting his popularity as a politician in middle age, as he tried to turn the situation around. I thought that even as he drifted to electoral defeat he was going to pull a last political hat trick by saving the international financial system, with his plan to pump capital into the banks rather than buying up assets (which Paulson, in his feckless way, took up as the model for the bailout).
And then, in a bizarre twist, he declared war on Iceland.
November 15, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Brad
And then, in a bizarre twist, he declared war on Iceland.
But I read that they are a bunch of terrorists?! When does the British Army invade anyway?
November 15, 2008 at 7:07 pm
ari
No problem, b. I didn’t take it personally.
November 15, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Walt
I’m not sure when the update occurred, so in case you need more clarification: The value of a share bought in 1972 would now be around $80 times 20 or $1600. So IBM is actually up 4x since 1972.
November 15, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Sifu Tweety Fish
I’m not sure when the update occurred, so in case you need more clarification: The value of a share bought in 1972 would now be around $80 times 20 or $1600. So IBM is actually up 4x since 1972.
During which time the stock market went up more than eight times! Totally validating ari’s original point, via some logic I can’t be bothered to fabricate.
November 15, 2008 at 8:08 pm
ari
I had a point?
November 15, 2008 at 8:39 pm
ac
When does the British Army invade anyway?
The RAF was scheduled to take over Iceland’s air defenses in December, but NATO decided it was best to change the roster, and have some other country do it.
November 15, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Walt
Ari’s point is that he hates IBM, and is trying to destroy their stock price. I’m sure he’s shorting IBM stock right now. He probably plans on spending his ill-gotten gains on a MacBook Air.
November 16, 2008 at 1:02 am
herbert browne
In a prescient moment (unless they’re illegal- then I didn’t) last November I started writing an investment pamphlet “Follow the Bears to NASDAQ 900″. It’s at the printer’s, now…
Question, Re: “At 3:29 P.M., red light bars flashed on above and below each of the time clocks surrounding the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange. This was the traditional visual signal to show that one minute of training time remained. At the same moment, a bell began clanging on the speaker’s rostrum — the auditory warning.”
what is “training time”? do they have to do exercises, or keep in shape?
^..^
November 16, 2008 at 1:58 am
Michael Turner
So IBM is actually up 4x since 1972.
Except that the dollar is worth about 1/5th what it was in 1972. People forget: IBM used to be virtually synonymous with business computing. IBM also made this thing called the Selectric, which wasn’t even a computer. It was sort of like Microsoft Word except that it made a lot more noise, and to erase mistakes, you had to brush on this white stuff in a little bottle. I heard you could get you high if you sniffed that white stuff. That feature alone is thought to account for at least 20% of IBM’s stock price in 1972.
November 16, 2008 at 2:38 am
ari
herbert, I think that must be a typo. It should say “trading time.” But, believe it or not, the mistake is the Times‘s, not mine.